Test bay and factory capacity
Public reviews treat factory slots and test bays as a limit separate from any one material. Figures below are copied from those sources.
Compiled . Dates on each claim are the dates of the linked sources.
What it is
The review states that the second of two major bottlenecks in the large power transformer supply chain is the testing capacity of large power transformer manufacturers. It says each facility typically has 1 to 2 test beds, that testing can take a week for large power transformers and 24 hours for other transformer types, and that a lack of test beds limits production. U.S. Department of Energy Electric Grid Supply Chain Review .
The council report describes manufacturing capacity as floor space, assembly bays, and production lines. National Infrastructure Advisory Council report .
Why it constrains supply
The review says stakeholders reported that it takes 12 to 16 weeks on average to manufacture a large power transformer if all the materials are available, then one week to test and one week to prepare the unit for shipping. U.S. Department of Energy Electric Grid Supply Chain Review .
The report says manufacturing facilities have a limited number of build slots, and that a slot can be used for a large power transformer, a smaller transformer, or a core refurbishment. It says new factory construction takes 1 to 3 years, and that specialty equipment such as winding machines or core tables can take 1 to 2 years to obtain. U.S. Department of Energy Report to Congress .
Current public evidence
The report cites a Department of Commerce estimate that in 2019, 137 large power transformers (18 percent) were produced domestically for domestic use while 617 units (82 percent) were imported, with capacity utilization of about 40 percent and a derived maximum capacity of about 343 large power transformers a year. U.S. Department of Energy Report to Congress .
The council report says an electric utility or generation developer that orders a transformer may have to wait 2 to 4 years, compared with a wait of months as recently as 2020, and that one U.S. large power transformer manufacturing facility disclosed a 5-year wait for new orders. National Infrastructure Advisory Council report .
Buyer mitigations
The council report says most electric utilities do not source transformers under long-term contracts, and that the out-years of a five-year capital budget are seldom specific about discrete projects. It recommends encouraging long-term contracts between transformer suppliers and the sectors driving demand. National Infrastructure Advisory Council report .
The report says that before the COVID-19 pandemic a large transformer could be ordered with a lead time of less than a year, and that later conversations indicated lead times up to and exceeding 36 months. It identifies limited cost-effective domestic manufacturing capacity as a supply-chain weak link. U.S. Department of Energy Report to Congress .
Ordering timelines that public sources state are collected in the buying guide. Typical lead times by class and region are on the grid lead-time tracker. Mid-tier manufacturers already in the directory are on the mid-tier list. A dash on that list means no public dated capacity note is on file.
Directory
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